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Crop Conditions as of September 20, 2016
Farmers were able to make good harvest progress this past week as a period of warm, dry weather covered much of the province before the return to rain and showers this past weekend slowed everything to a crawl again. Harvest progress improved by 15% percentage points on the week to 35% completed compared to the 5 year average of 55% (See Table 1). This is the slowest progress since 2010 when only 15% of the province was combined by this date. All regions advanced between 10 and 20 points with harvest most advanced in the South region at 67% complete, up almost 20 points on the week. The remainder of the province is rated between 15 and 30% harvested with the North West region lagging as it dries out from the effects of several heavy precipitation events earlier this month. Light frost was reported in all regions though damage is anticipated to be light.
The provincial yield index rose 1.5 points to 113.1 since the last report due to higher expected yields in the South, North East and Peace regions (See Table 2). Significant yield improvements of 1 bushel/acre or more were noted for barley, canola and winter wheat. Durum yield declined by a bushel/acre with reports of fusarium along the Saskatchewan border.
Fall seeded crops are off to a strong start with the good surface soil moisture conditions this year. 86% of the fall crops in South region are rated in good or excellent condition.
REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS:
The 2016 Alberta Crop Report Series continues to provide summaries for the following five regions:
Region One: Southern (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)
- Harvest progressing despite short delays due to showers.
- Harvest progress slightly behind 5 year average of 77% but better than 2014 (61.8%)
- Special crops harvest: chickpeas (63%); potatoes (42%); sugar beets (4% after mini harvest); dry beans (70%).
- Yield index rose 3 points to 106.1. Yield estimates improved for spr. wheat (+0.5 bu); barley (+3.6 bu); oats (+1.4 bu); winter wheat (+2 bu); canola (+2.6 bu).
- Hay quality affected by wet summer weather. Only 50% of the dryland crop and 60% of the irrigated production is expected to grade as good or better
Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)
- Wet field conditions slowed harvest restart despite the good weather as completion improved only 9 percentage points to 20% completed.
- Harvest well behind 5 year average of 46% but only slightly behind that of 2015 (25%).
- Yield index fell 1.5 points to 112.7. Yield estimates declined for spr. wheat (-2.2 bu); durum (-3.6 bu); oats (-1.7 bu); winter wheat (-2.8 bu); field peas (-1.4 bu). Yields for barley and canola were unchanged.
- Only 45% of dryland hay production expected to grade good or better for quality.
Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)
- Good harvest progress until halted again by rain last weekend. Harvest progress at 29% complete (+15 points).
- Harvest almost 20 points behind 5 year average of 47.9% completed. Only slightly behind 2015 of 34.8%.
- Yield index rose 2.4 points to 120.8. Yield estimates rose for spr. wheat (+1.2 bu); oats (+3.5 bu); canola (+1.1 bu). Yields for barley and field peas were unchanged.
- 60% of dryland hay production expected to be good or excellent for quality.
Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)
- Harvest was slow to restart due to wet field conditions. Harvest advanced only 10 points to 16% complete.
- Harvest progress almost 20 points behind the 5 year average of 37% completed. Slowest harvest progress since 2010 (6.65%).
- Yield index dropped less than 1 point to 116.7. Yield estimates rose for spr. wheat (+0.8 bu) and declined for canola (-0.7 bu) and field peas (-3.6 bu). Estimates unchanged for barley and oats.
- Only 35% of dryland hay production is expected to be of good or excellent quality.
Region Five: Peace River (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)
- Harvest progress was slowed by sporadic light showers throughout the region. Harvest advanced only 10 points for the week to 23% completed. This is well behind the 5 year average of 53% and the slowest since 2011 when only 10% of crops had been collected by this date.
- Harvest also slowed by saturated soils in some areas and lodging.
- Yield index rose by 2.5 points to 112.3. Yield estimates increased for spr. wheat (+2.1 bu), canola (+0.4 bu) and field peas (+0.7 bu). Yield estimate declined for oats (-0.8 bu). Barley estimates were unchanged from the previous report.
- Only 40% of dryland hay production is expected to be of good or excellent quality.
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation
James Wright, Risk Analyst
Actuarial, Analytics & Forecasting Unit
E-mail: james.wright@afsc.ca
Phone: 403-782-8336
Lacombe, Alberta
September 23, 2016
Note to Users: The contents of this document may not be used or reproduced without properly accrediting Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, Economics and Competitiveness Branch, Statistics and Data Development Section
The 2016 Alberta crop reporting series is available on the Internet at: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sdd4191
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