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Alberta Crop Conditions as of September 23, 2014
Good weather with above average temperatures throughout the province provided the opportunity for producers to make substantial harvest progress following almost 2 weeks of cool, sometimes wet conditions. Isolated showers were reported in the North East, North West and Peace regions though quantities were insufficient to cause harvest delays. Provincially, 27% of crops are in the swath with 52% harvested, up from 35% swathed and 26% combined last week. Harvest progress is in line with the 5 year average of 26% swathed and 50% harvested but well behind the progress of the past 2 years of 71% combined in 2013 and 62% in 2012. Harvest progress is being hampered in areas of the South, Central and North West regions which received the heavy, wet snow earlier in the month causing standing crops to lodge severely.
Yield estimates continue to improve in all regions as more harvest information becomes available and are projected to be the second highest year on record though well below the spectacular yields of 2013. Over the past month, provincial yields of spring wheat and barley have increased by 1 bushel per acre, canola is up half a bushel, durum is up 2 bushels, and field peas are 3 bushels per acre higher. This is opposite to what occurs historically. Provincial yields are expected to average 5 – 10% above their 5 year averages which includes 2013.
Crop quality took a hit from the frost and wet weather experienced earlier in the month but overall, the year appears to be average for quality. Currently, over 90% of the spring wheat and 85% of the durum will grade 3 CW or better. 70% of the barley is grading 1 CW with a further 15% eligible for malt quality. Over 80% of the canola is grading 1-Canada and 72% of the field peas are expected to be of food quality of #2 or better.
Regional Assessments:
The 2014 Alberta Crop Report Series provides summaries for the following five regions:
Region One: Southern (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)
- Harvest progress advanced to 21% swathed/62% combined from 28% swathed/32% combined.
- Harvest progress behind 5 year average of 69% combined and 2013 progress of 83% combined.
- Yield projections are for average to slightly above average crops compared to 5 year averages.
- 95% of spring wheat grading 3 CW or better, 86% of barley grading 1 CW or better.
Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)
- Harvest progress advanced to 32% swathed/39% combined from 34% swathed/18% combined.
- Harvest progress behind 5 year average of 46% combined and 2013 progress of 68% combined.
- Yield projections are average to slightly above average for most crops compared to 5 year averages. Field pea yields up 15%.
Below average quality could be an issue in this region with 80% of spring wheat grading 3 CW or better, 68% of barley grading 1 CW or better and only 50% of the canola grading #1.
Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)
- Harvest progress advanced to 32% swathed/50% combined from 43% swathed/20% combined.
- Harvest progress ahead of 5 year average of 43% combined but behind 2013 progress of 68% combined.
- Yield projections are 10 – 15% above 5 year averages.
- 95% of spring wheat grading 3 CW or better, 90% of barley grading 1 CW or better, less than 60% of the field pea crop is grading food quality of #2 or better.
Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)
- Harvest progress advanced to 35% swathed/38% combined from 45% swathed/10% combined.
- Harvest similar to 5 year average of 35% combined but behind 2013 progress of 53% combined.
- Yield projections are 10% above 5 year averages.
- 95% of spring wheat grading 3 CW or better, 83% of barley grading 1 CW or better, 88% of field peas grading food quality of #2 or better.
Region Five: Peace River (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)
- Harvest progress advanced to 17% swathed/71% combined from 29% swathed/48% combined.
- Harvest progress well ahead of 5 year average of 49% combined and similar to 2013 of 70% combined.
- Despite the dry conditions experienced throughout the region this year, yield projections are much better than would be expected. Spring wheat and field pea yields are expected to be average while barley, oat and canola yields are projected to be 15 – 20% above their 5 year averages.
- 95% of spring wheat grading 3 CW or better, 95% of barley grading 1 CW or better and over 90% of the canola grading 1-Canada.
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation
James Wright, Risk Analyst
Actuarial, Analytics & Forecasting Unit
Email: james.wright@afsc.ca
Lacombe, Alberta
Telephone: (403)782-8336
September 26, 2014
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