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Crop Conditions as of September 26, 2017 (Abbreviated Report)
Minimal harvest progress was made this week as cool temperatures and light to moderate precipitation (See Map) affected crop dry down. Heavy frost was reported across much of the South region which had been missed previously. Harvest completion is estimated at 60% in the bin, up 4 percentage points from last week, but falling behind the 5 year average of 68% for the first time this year (See Table #1). A further 18% of crops are in the swath. Spring wheat is 63% harvested, up 4 points on the week but lagging its 5 year average of 71%. Barley at 67% harvested is equal to its 5 year average. Oat harvest is at 35% compared to the 5 year average of 52%, canola at 41% harvested compared to its 5 year average of 59% while field peas are nearing completion at 96% compared to an average of 98%. A warm, dry weather system is needed across the northern half of the province. The problem is this weather is not in the long term forecasts.
Surface and sub soil moisture ratings are virtually unchanged this week at 55% and 54% good or excellent respectively. Dry soil moisture conditions in the South region continue to affect the crop condition ratings of newly seeded fall crops. Only 16% of fall seeded crops in the South are rated in good or excellent condition with 71% rated poor. Approximately 75% of fall seeded crops in the province are grown in southern Alberta.
To date, crop quality has been very good and maybe a little better than anticipated (See Table #2). It is expected that the quality of crops remaining to be harvested will be negatively impacted by the harvest delays currently being experienced.
REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS:
The 2017 Alberta Crop Report Series continues to provide summaries for the following five regions:
Region One: Southern (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)
- Cool temperatures and light showers.
- Harvest is virtually complete compared to the region’s 5 year average of 85%. Potatoes, sugar beets and flax remain.
- Surface soil moisture rated 60% Poor; 29% Fair; 11% Good.
- Fall seed crops rated 71% Poor; 13% Fair; 14% Good; 2% Excellent.
Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)
- Cool temperatures with light precipitation in the east increasing to moderate precipitation in the west.
- Harvest progress improved 6 percentage points to 76% completed compared to 5 year average of 59%.
- Surface soil moisture rated 19% Poor; 38% Fair; 40% Good; 3% Excellent. In the eastern and central portions of the region where fall seeded crops are most likely to be seeded, surface moisture is 45% poor.
- Fall seeded crops rated 7% Poor; 63% Fair; 30% Good.
Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)
- Cool temperatures and light rain shut down harvest in most areas except along the Saskatchewan border.
- Harvest progress rose 2 points on the week to 32% complete compared to its 5 year average of 60%.
- Surface soil moisture rated 1% Poor; 5% Fair; 36% Good; 56% Excellent; 2% Excessive.
Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)
- Cool temperatures and rainfall amounts of 25-50 mm.
- No harvest progress reported this week which stands at 14% completed compared to the 5 year average of 53%.
- Surface soil moisture rated 0% Poor; 6% Fair; 23% Good; 67% Excellent; 4% Excessive.
Region Five: Peace River (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)
- Cool temperatures and light to moderate rainfall amounts of 15-50 mm early in the reporting period.
- Producers able to make some harvest progress late in the period. Harvest estimated at 40% completed compared to 5 year average of 70%.
- Surface soil moisture rated 4% Poor; 15% Fair; 46% Good; 30% Excellent; 5% Excessive.
James Wright, Risk Analyst
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation
Actuarial, Analytics & Forecasting Unit
Lacombe, Alberta
E-mail: james.wright@afsc.ca
Phone: 403-782-8336
September 29, 2017
Note to Users: The contents of this document may not be used or reproduced without properly accrediting Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, Economics and Competitiveness Branch, Statistics and Data Development Section
The 2017 Alberta crop reporting series is available on the Internet at: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sdd4191
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