Grass and Legume Seed Market Update - Aug 31, 2010

With the US economy still on shaky ground, every time another US economic report comes out, the news seems to be another roadblock in the grass and legume seed sectors’ road to recovery. Housing sales in the US, or rather, the lack of new home buying and new home building, results in less demand for turf seeds, further compounding the movement and demand for this huge seed sector. With domestic forage grass and legume buying/selling seasons half a year away, don’t expect much action in that sector either.

Grass and legume seed production expectations this year are not very encouraging, as dry conditions have really affected the Peace region, while excessive moisture in the rest of the prairies resulted in unseeded acres, and too much vegetative growth or delayed maturity. Rains still continue to fall in many areas of the prairies.

With very little new demand, this year’s creeping red fescue crop, though very short in production, will not affect demand. Previous inventories remain good. Most processors in the Peace agree a below average crop was taken off, with total production well off the annual 40 to 45 million pounds normally harvested. This years’ crop is more likely below the 20 million lbs range. However, short supply does not mean increased prices. In fact, quotes have settled into the 32 to 35 ˘/lb range, with little new buying. There’s virtually no interest in certified boreal, as Europe overproduced last year. There is also not much expected in this year’s new seedling crop, as dry conditions may have hampered new stand establishment. Growers will be checking closely after harvest to evaluate this year’s catch. The all time low for acres of creeping red fescue may not have happened yet.

Like the turf grasses, prices remain unsettled for forage grasses and legumes. Harvest in the Peace of forage grasses are showing average to below average yields, off fewer acres. Demand for the forage grass seeds are also lacking. Last reports have smooth brome around 35 – 40 ˘/lb, with certified 5 to 10 ˘/lb higher. Meadow brome quotes are being thrown around anywhere’s from 60˘ to 80 ˘lb . Common Timothy seed quotes have moved up to the 35 - 40 ˘/lb range, with Certified Climax around 40 - 45 ˘/lb. Not much of a timothy crop is expected.

Alfalfa quotes are now in the $1.20 to $1.40/lb range, but the crop isn’t off yet. With the wet conditions in Canada’s alfalfa seed growing regions, prices for leafcutter bees are expected to be strong this upcoming winter. Red and alsike seed quotes are still marred at 50 – 60 ˘/lb for red, and 35 to 50 ˘/lb for alsike, while sweet clover quotes are between 30 and 40 ˘/lb. But as mentioned, production this year is expected to be lower, so prices may become volatile in the upcoming months.

With the North American turf seed crop now in the bin, expectations for good prices are not very good. The forage grass seed and legume seed harvests are yet to be completed. However, the market expectations for the forage grass seed sector may be slightly better than for turf. But it appears at this time, legumes may have the most potential for price movement upwards. But until the crop comes off and demand actually comes in the form of new sales, its’ wait time.

Grass and Legume Seed Quotes
	Creeping Red Fescue	Boreal C R Fescue	Smooth Brome grass	Carlton Smooth Brome grass	Meadow Brome grass	Fleet Meadow Brome grass	Timothy	Climax Timothy	Alfalfa	Red Clover	Alsike Clover	Sweet Clover
	Com #1	Cert #1	Com #1	Cert #1	Com #1	Cert #1	Com #1	Cert #1	Com #1	Com #1	Com #1	Com #1
Sept 1/09	40-45	50-52	40-45	45-50	120-130	140-150	30-40	45-55	100-130	60-80	40-45	30-40
Oct 6	40-43	50	40-45	45-48	80-120	100-140	30-40	45-55	90-140	65-80	40	35-40
Nov 3	40-45	50	35-40	40-45	80-120	120-140	30-45	45-55	100-140	50-80	25-40	30-40
1-Dec	40	45	35-40	40-45	80-120	120-140	30-40	40-45	100-140	50-80	35-45	30-40
5-Jan	40	45	35-40	40-45	80-120	120-140	28-30	40	110-145	50-70	35-45	30-40
2-Feb	35-40	40-45	35-40	40-45	70-110	120-130	25-30	40	115-140	50-70	35-45	30-40
2-Mar	35-40	40-45	35-40	40-45	70-110	120-130	25-30	40	125-140	50-70	35-45	30-40
7-Apr	35-40	40-42	35-40	40-45	70-110	120-130	25-30	40	120-145	50-70	35-45	30-40
4-May	35-38	40-42	35-40	40-45	70-100	100-120	25-30	40	120-145	50-65	35-45	30-40
31-May	35-38	40-42	35-40	40-45	70-100	100-120	25-30	40	120-145	50-65	35-45	30-40
5-Jul	35-38	40-42	35-40	40-45	70-100	100-120	25-30	40	120-145	50-65	35-45	30-40
3-Aug	32-35	35-37	35-40	40-45	60-80	80-110	25-35	40-45	100-140	50-60	35-45	30-40
31-Aug	32-35	35-37	35-40	40-45	60-80	80-110	32-40	40-45	120-140	50-60	35-45	40-50
Prices are quotes only, until actual orders come in, that's when firm pricing is established
- prices in ˘/lb, last updated: Aug 31-2010