Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Farm Income Forecast (2017 - 2018) - Alberta Highlights

 
 
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Agri-Food Statistics Update Issue No. FI18-1

Collected from a variety of sources, the Statistics and Data Development Section monitors statistical indicators of agri-food activity for Alberta. The Agri-Food Statistics Update is designed to provide users with commentary on current issues, trends and new developments related to agriculture and the food and beverage processing industries. Up-to-date statistics are supplemented with informative charts and diagrams. To gauge Alberta’s performance, comparative data and information are often available for Canada and the provinces.

Following are definitions of terms used in this update:

Farm Cash Receipts measure the gross revenue of farm businesses, in current dollars. Revenues are generated either from sales of crops, livestock and livestock products (except inter-farm sales), or from direct program payments. Receipts are recorded when the money is paid to producers, and before producers pay any operating expenses.

Farm Operating Expenses represent business costs incurred by farm businesses for goods and services used in the production of agricultural commodities.

Net Cash Income (NCI) is defined as farm cash receipts minus farm operating expenses. It represents the amount of cash generated by the farm business that is available for debt repayment, investment or withdrawal by the owner.

Realized Net Income (RNI) is defined as the net cash income minus depreciation plus income-in-kind. It represents the financial flows, both cash and non-cash, attributable to the farm business. RNI does not account for changes in stocks (i.e. value of inventory change for crops and livestock).

Total Net Income (TNI) measures the financial flows and stock changes of farm businesses (i.e. net cash income minus depreciation plus income-in-kind and value of inventory change). It represents the return to owner’s equity, unpaid labour, management and risk.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Farm Income Forecast (2017-2018) - Alberta Highlights
On March 27, 2018, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released for all provinces and Canada, its 2017 and 2018 farm income forecasts (January to December). Unlike the 2017 forecast which is based mostly on administrative data, the 2018 forecast is extremely soft, and is based entirely on assumptions and should be considered as such.

Farm Income Forecast - January to December 2017
  • The 2017 AAFC forecast suggests a healthy farm income situation for Alberta, with several records for key indicators, if realized.
  • Total farm cash receipts (FCR) for the province is pegged at $14.5 billion, up 7.2 per cent from 2016, and if realized, would be the highest on record and rank first among provinces.
  • Fuelling the gain were higher crop and livestock market receipts plus program payments to producers.
  • Farm operating expenses are forecast at $10.2 billion, up marginally 0.9 per cent from 2016, and second highest on record.
  • Net cash income, realized net income and total net income are forecast to reach record highs at $4.3 billion, $2.5 billion, and $2.6 billion respectively.
Farm Income Forecast - January to December 2018
  • Although quite soft, Alberta's total FCR is forecast up 1.0 per cent to $14.6 billion in 2018, while total farm operating expenses is up 2.2 per cent to $10.4 billion. Expected to decline are net cash income, realized net income and total net income, down 1.9 per cent, 3.3 per cent and 10.3 per cent, respectively.
  • More information regarding the AAFC Forecasts can be found at:
http://www.agr.gc.ca/eng/about-us/publications/economic-publications/2018-canadian-agricultural-outlook/?id=1522075641095
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For a complete copy of this update, please see attached pdf copy.
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Note to Users: The contents of this document may not be used or reproduced without properly accrediting Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, Economics and Competitiveness Division, Statistics and Data Development Section.


 
 
 
 
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For more information about the content of this document, contact Roy Larsen.
This information published to the web on March 16, 2017.
Last Reviewed/Revised on April 25, 2018.