Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Farm Income Forecast (2016 - 2017) - Alberta Highlights

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Agri-Food Statistics Update Issue No. FI17-1

Collected from a variety of sources, the Statistics and Data Development Section monitors statistical indicators of agri-food activity for Alberta. The Agri-Food Statistics Update is designed to provide users with commentary on current issues, trends and new developments related to agriculture and the food and beverage processing industries. Up-to-date statistics are supplemented with informative charts and diagrams. To gauge Alberta’s performance, comparative data and information are often available for Canada and the provinces.

Following are definitions of terms used in this update:

Farm Cash Receipts measure the gross revenue of farm businesses, in current dollars. Revenues are generated either from sales of crops, livestock and livestock products (except inter-farm sales), or from direct program payments. Receipts are recorded when the money is paid to producers, and before producers pay any operating expenses.

Farm Operating Expenses represent business costs incurred by farm businesses for goods and services used in the production of agricultural commodities.

Net Cash Income (NCI) is defined as farm cash receipts minus farm operating expenses. It represents the amount of cash generated by the farm business that is available for debt repayment, investment or withdrawal by the owner.

Realized Net Income (RNI) is defined as the net cash income minus depreciation plus income-in-kind. It represents the financial flows, both cash and non-cash, attributable to the farm business. RNI does not account for changes in stocks (i.e. value of inventory change for crops and livestock).

Total Net Income (TNI) measures the financial flows and stock changes of farm businesses (i.e. net cash income minus depreciation plus income-in-kind and value of inventory change). It represents the return to owner’s equity, unpaid labour, management and risk.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Farm Income Forecast (2016-2017) - Alberta Highlights
On February 17, 2017, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released for all provinces and Canada, its 2016 and 2017 farm income forecasts (January to December). Farm income forecasts are only as good as the assumptions made and should be considered in this light.

Farm Income Forecast - January to December 2016
  • Overall, the 2016 forecast for Alberta suggests another relatively good year for farm income.
  • Total farm cash receipts (FCR) for the province is pegged at $13.5 billion, down 1.4 per cent from 2015, and if realized, would be the second highest on record.
  • The marginal decline in FCR is due to lower livestock market receipts more than offsetting higher crop market receipts and program payments to producers.
  • Given the prolonged harvest and quality issues in 2016, there is a good possibility that the crop market receipts and program payments forecasted could be different from the actual figures to be released by Statistics Canada on May 24, 2017.
  • Farm operating expenses are forecast to fall 3.1 per cent, to $10.0 billion.
  • Net cash income and realized net income are forecast to reach record highs at $3.5 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively.
Farm Income Forecast - January to December 2017
  • Based entirely on assumptions, Alberta’s total FCR is forecast down 2.6 per cent to $13.1 billion in 2017, while total farm operating expenses is virtually flat, falling 0.6 per cent to $10.0 billion. Down as well are net cash income and realized net income, dropping 8.3 per cent and 16.7 per cent, respectively.
  • More information regarding the AAFC Forecasts can be found at:
For a complete copy of this update, please see attached pdf copy.
Note to Users: The contents of this document may not be used or reproduced without properly accrediting Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, Economics and Competitiveness Division, Statistics and Data Development Section.

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For more information about the content of this document, contact Roy Larsen.
This document is maintained by Mary E Nucom.
This information published to the web on March 16, 2017.