Alberta Crop Conditions as of October 20, 2015

 
 
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This information has been made available by Agriculture Financial Services Corporation.

Alberta Crop Conditions as of October 20, 2015

Harvest is in its final stages. Producers were able to take advantage of warm, mostly dry conditions this past week to raise the completion percentage to 96.3%. Dry beans and potatoes are virtually completed and only 15% of the sugar beet crop remains to be dug. What remains outstanding is principally canola requiring additional time to cure due to second growth. Producers in the eastern portion of the Central region have been slowed, as they are having difficulty in getting their crops to dry down. Isolated showers in the Edmonton area may cause some completion delays.

Provincial yields continue to move higher with the provincial yield index rising to 88.3% of the 5 year average. Yield averages for canola and durum wheat have improved by more than a bushel per acre with spring wheat rising by one-half bushel. Provincial spring wheat yields are reported at 86% of their 5 year average with barley at 89% and canola at 92%. Field peas have shown the largest yield declines amongst the major crops in most regions averaging 80% of their 5 year average. Crop quality is reported to be similar to 5 and 10 year averages. The exceptions are durum wheat where quality is above long term averages at 80% in the top 2 grades compared to 70%. Oats are the opposite with 58% in the top 2 grades this year versus the longer term averages of 80%.

Crop condition ratings for the newly seeded fall seeded crops showed a slight improvement to 66% rated good or excellent. Pastures have enjoyed a long fall season with many looking better now than they have all year.

Soil moisture remains a concern for next year. 55% of the province is rating surface moisture as good or excellent. 49% of the province is rated good or excellent for sub soil moisture. The North West region, which was the epicenter of this year’s dry conditions, remains very dry with 55% of the region rated poor for sub soil moisture.


Regional Assessments:
The 2015 Alberta Crop Report Series provides summaries for the following five regions:

Region One: Southern (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)
  • Harvest is complete with a few odds and ends to clean up. With the good weather, producers are busy with fall work.
  • A little surprisingly, the South region was the most affected of all regions for yield at 82.0% of its 5 year average, unchanged from last yield survey. An improvement in the durum yield was offset by a reduction to canola. Spring wheat averages 84% of its 5 year average, durum 80%, barley 87%, canola 77%, field peas 75%.
  • 68% of fall seeded crops are rated in good or excellent condition with a further 25% rated fair.
  • Surface soil moisture is rated 48% good or excellent with 16% rated poor. Sub soil moisture is rate good or excellent in 44% of the region with 18% rated poor
Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)
  • Harvest completion rated at 94% in the bin.
  • Regional yield index improved to 93.2% of its 5 year average. Significant yield improvements were reported for spring wheat, durum, and canola while the field pea yield dropped by a bushel per acre. Spring wheat averages 92% of its 5 year average, durum 80%, barley 93%, oats 86%, canola 97%, field peas 80%.
  • 84% of fall seeded crops are rated good or excellent with 4% rated in poor condition.
  • 64% of the region is rated good or excellent for surface moisture, 12% poor. Subsoil moisture rated 69% good or excellent, 6% poor.
Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)
  • Harvest is 94% completed.
  • Regional yield index rose to 88.7% of the 5 year average based upon significant yield increases reported for spring wheat, barley, canola and field peas. Spring wheat averages 88% of its 5 year average, barley 80%, oats 79%, canola 93%, field peas 83%.
  • 96% of fall seeded crops are rated good or excellent.
  • 70% of the region is rated good or excellent for surface moisture, 10% poor. Sub soil moisture is rated 56% good or excellent, 18% poor.
Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)
  • Harvest at 96% completed with principally canola remaining outstanding.
  • Regional yield index improved 4.5 points since last report to 90.5%. The significant improvement was led by a near 4 bushel increase to barley, a 3 bushel increase to canola and a 2 bushel increase to oats. Spring wheat yields reported at 88% of their 5 year average, barley 85%, oats 84%, canola 95%, field peas 83%.
  • 34% of region rating surface moisture as good or excellent, 32% poor. 14% is rated good or excellent for sub soil moisture with a whopping 55% rated poor.
Region Five: Peace River (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)
  • 98% harvest completion. Light precipitation in central and northern portions may slow the harvest of the remainder.
  • Regional yield index down slightly at 94.2% of the regional 5 year average. An increase to the barley yield was offset by a reduction in the yield of spring wheat. Spring wheat yields reported at 84% of its 5 year average, barley 97%, oats 86%, canola 100%, field peas 96%.
  • 44% of region rated good or excellent for surface moisture, 17% poor. Sub soil moisture is rated 38% good or excellent, 20% poor.

James Wright, Risk Analyst
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation
Actuarial, Analytics & Forecasting Unit
Lacombe, Alberta
Email: james.wright@afsc.ca
Telephone: (403)782-8336

October 23, 2015

 
 
 
 
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This information published to the web on October 23, 2015.
Last Reviewed/Revised on November 6, 2017.