2004/07/18 Drought Report for the Agricultural Region of Alberta

• Since the last drought report the areas classified as Drought have decreased from 5% to just over 1% of the reporting area. Areas in this category in northern Alberta, include a small pocket in the M.D. of Lesser Slave River, one in western Alberta in the county of Yellow Head, and in central and southern Alberta, five other pockets exist, one in the county of Starland, one spanning the boarder between special areas 3 and 4, and one each in the counties of Forty Mile, Cardston, and Picher Creek. Of significant note is the fact that the Northern Peace region is not categorized as drought despite dire need of moisture here. The reason for this is that Much Below Normal precipitation began to fall at the onset of the growing season. Prior to this these areas received mostly Below Normal precipitation over winter and Normal precipitation through most of June, July, and August of last year.
• Currently nearly 31% of the reporting area is in Drought Alert down from 52% reported in the July 04th, 2004 drought report. Recent rains have reduced the Drought Alert areas in much of northern and central and southern Alberta. Currently Drought Alert areas include west central Alberta, central Alberta and east central Alberta with some pockets remaining in southwestern and south central Alberta.
• The areas classified as Normal have increased significantly and now are account for 68% of the reporting area up from 43% as reported 14 days ago in the last drought report. These areas include the most of the southern half of the Peace region, most of northern Alberta, about half of northeastern Alberta as well as much of southern Alberta.

• The area representing recent (90-day) trends toward Normal conditions decreased since the last report but still represent most of the mapped area. Since 52% of the province was in Drought Alert status, this represents a trend toward improvement in most of the affected areas
• 90-day trends towards Drought Alert were found in two pockets in the Northern Peace region affecting the M.D.'s of Mackenzie, Northern Lights and Northern Sunrise. Of these areas, if current 90-day trends persist those areas currently in Drought Alert status are expected to stay in Drought Alert and those areas in Normal are expected to move into Drought Alert.

• At least Above Normal precipitation over the last 90 days was recorded over most of the reporting areas with notable exceptions in the northern Peace region where Much Below Normal precipitation has been recorded in the M.D.'s of Mackenzie, Northern Lights and Northern Sunrise, as far south as Manning. The rest of the northern Peace Region is reporting Below Normal precipitation as far south as Peace River including M.D's of Fairview and Peace. Other relatively large areas reporting Below Normal include the M.D. of Lesser Slave river, a long north-south running corridor in east central Alberta that extends between the southern edge of Lake Land county down as far south as Starland county. In the south the same conditions are occurring in the counties of Forty mile and Cypress. Smaller pockets can be found in various areas around Alberta including the counties of Parkland, Lacombe, Starland, Special areas 3 and 4, Warner and Pincher Creek (Figure 3).
• Since the last report (June 04th, 2004) a series of storm events coupled with thunder storm activity has continued to deliver varying amounts of precipitation 0-140 mm over much of central Alberta. The majority of the precipitation fell around the Swan Hills (140 mm) and beyond with total amounts between 40-90 mm extending into the southeastern Peace region. Greater than 50 mm fell across most of the northern parts of the reporting area and much of the north west, and in central Alberta a broad band of precipitation (>50 mm) extended through much of central Alberta, including Edmonton, Red Deer, and as far south as the county of Wheatland.
• The northern Peace region remains in desperate need of precipitation as less then 10 mm has fallen over much of this area. The remainder of the northern half of the Peace region received between 10-20 mm of precipitation, barely enough to sustain crop growth. Much of southwestern and southeastern Alberta was also missed by the recent storm activity with total amounts in these areas ranging between 0 and 20 mm. The same is also true in parts of east central Alberta for parts of the counties of Wainwright, Flagstaff and Two Hills, which reported less than 20 mm of precipitation. All other locations within the reporting areas received between 20 to 40 mm, which is enough precipitation to supply the crop needs for the next week or so. (Figure 4).
• July is historically a very important month for precipitation with 30-year normals that range between 30 mm in south central Alberta to 140 mm in the northwest (Figure 5). Given current soil moisture conditions a return to normal precipitation totals should result in adequate crop growth over most of the province with the exception of south central Alberta. Dry conditions here, in and around the county of Warner currently exist and as a result above normal precipitation will be needed to insure good crop growth.

• Soil moisture levels were less than 50 mm of plant available water for most of south central Alberta and east central Alberta stretching as far north as the county of St. Paul with a few pockets appearing in central Alberta in the Counties of Ponoka and Lacombe as well as Special Areas 2, 3 and 4 and the M.D. of Acadia. Much of southeastern Alberta has soil moisture levels of less than 25 mm, a condition requiring immediate precipitation for continued crop development (Figure 6). However, for many of these areas, particularly in the south east and east central areas, soil moisture levels of below 50 mm represent an average condition which highlights the dependence of agriculture in these areas on regularly occurring timely rains fall events (Figure 7).
• In the northern Peace River region soil moisture levels are below 50 mm in the counties of Fairview, Peace, Clear Hills, Northern Sunrise, Northern Lights and Mackenzie. Any remaining crops, permanent pasture, or hay land in this area are in desperate need of precipitation. In the rest of the northern and western Peace region, soil moisture levels are between 25-50 mm, which translates to soil moisture deficits of Extreme to Well Below Normal for this time of year.
• Most of western Alberta, the southeast Peace region and the northeast have soil moisture levels ranging greater than 50mm and as high as 150 mm (Figure 6). These areas are currently not in a crop moisture deficit but again, continued rainfall is needed to keep crop growing as depending on soil moisture conditions a crop can use upwards of 30 mm of water in a week
• Soil moisture levels are in Extreme Deficit for most the northern and the extreme southwest portions of Peace region a condition that has worsened since the last report (July 04th). In the northern part of the reporting area, soil moisture deficits continue to be Well Below Normal to Extreme Deficit but the areas affected have diminished in size and are not confined to the M.D.'s of Lesser Slave Lake, Opportunity and the County of Lake Land. Since the last report, the areas of extreme deficit in the northwest have disappeared, grading into Below Normal to Near Normal.
• Since last report, areas of Well Below Normal soil moisture in west and west central Alberta have decreased but are still affecting the Counties of Woodlands, Wetaskiwin, Clear Water, Ponoka, Camrose, Lacombe Red Deer, Mountain View and Rocky View. In addition, one pocket of Extreme Deficit can be found in the county of Lacombe and one in the county of Clear Water. In southern Alberta, areas in the Well Below Normal category have expanded and now include most of the county of Forty Mile, Warner Cardston and parts of the M.D. of Pincer Creek. One isolated pocket of Extreme Deficit in the county of Cardston continues to intensify. At least Near Normal soil moisture conditions are predicted to occur in many parts of the south half of the Peace county in addition to east half of the reporting area and most of southern Alberta (Figure 8).