2004/08/02 Drought Report for the Agricultural Region of Alberta

• Since the last Drought Report the areas classified as Drought have continued to decrease and now account for approximately 0.1% of the reporting area. Three small pockets remain in this category - one in the county of Starland, one spanning the border between Special Areas 3 and 4, and one in the county of Cardston. Of significant note is the fact that the northern Peace region is not categorized as Drought despite the dire need of moisture here. The reason for this is that Much Below Normal precipitation began to fall at the onset of the growing season. Prior to this, these areas received mostly Below Normal precipitation over winter and Normal precipitation through most of July and August of last year.
• Currently nearly 17% of the reporting area is in Drought Alert, down from 31% reported in the July 18th, 2004 Drought Report. Recent rains have reduced the Drought Alert areas in much of the northern Peace country, as well as northern, central and western Alberta. In southern Alberta the affected areas remain largely unchanged. Currently Drought Alert areas include west central Alberta, central Alberta and east central Alberta with some pockets remaining in southwestern and south central Alberta.
• The areas classified as Normal have increased significantly and now account for 82% of the reporting area, up from 68% as reported 15 days ago in the last Drought Report.

• The area representing recent (90-day) trends toward Normal conditions increased since the last report and represents most of the mapped area. Since 17% of the province was in Drought Alert status, this represents a trend toward improvement in most of the affected areas
• The 90-day trend towards Drought Alert remains in the northern Peace region and affects the M.D. of Mackenzie, and the northern eastern corner of the M.D. of Northern Lights. If the current 90-day trends persist those areas currently in Drought Alert status are expected to stay in Drought Alert and those areas in Normal are expected to move into Drought Alert.

• Most of the northern half of the Peace region has received at least Below Normal precipitation with the exception of the M.D. of Mackenzie and the northeastern tip of the M.D. of Northern Lights, which have received Well Below Normal precipitation. In the previous report, much of the northern Peace region including M.D.'s of Mackenzie, Northern Lights and Northern Sunrise, as far south as Manning have received Much Below Normal precipitation over the previous 90 days. Currently, the map shows that the Much Below Normal category has receded significantly. However since weather stations are sparse in this area this observation is based on observations from a single station, located at Manning, that recently received 76.2 mm. As a result of recent thunderstorm activity some areas may be better or worse than what has been depicted on the map.
• In other areas of the Peace, Below Normal precipitation was recorded in a small pocket in the County of Grande Prairie, centered on Beaver lodge and also in most of the northwestern portion of the M.D. of Lesser Slave River.
• In the rest of Alberta, areas receiving Below Normal precipitation include east central Alberta including the counties of Minburn, Beaver, Flagstaff, Camrose, Ponoka, Lacombe, Stettler and Paintearth. Other isolated Pockets can be found throughout central Alberta including an area surrounding the town of Andrew, as well as in the counties of Clearwater, Starland and one spot straddling the border between Special Areas 3 and 4 at the town of Esther. In the south three main pockets of Below Normal can be found, one each in the County of Forty mile, Warner and Cardston.
• Normal precipitation was recorded in most of the rest of Alberta with Grand Prairie and some areas in the southwest and southeast recording Above Normal. Much Above Normal precipitation was recorded in the county of Cypress near the town of Shuler (Figure 3).
• Since the last report (July 18, 2004) isolated showers delivered varying amounts of precipitation (0-80 mm) over the province. Total precipitation amounts ranged from less than 10 mm in the extreme south to as much as 80 mm at a few of the reporting stations. Manning reported 76.2 mm, suggesting some relief came to parts of the critically dry north central Peace region. Other areas reporting significant precipitation include both St. Paul (66.0 mm) and Vermillion (73.2 mm) in east central Alberta and Sundry (80.2 mm) in west central Alberta. Areas receiving less than 10 mm include parts of southwest and south central Alberta. Of these areas of particular note is an area in south central Alberta where early July rains were light compared to the rest of the province. Those areas receiving less than 20 mm since the last report will need precipitation shortly in order to maintain existing yield potentials.
• August generally marks an end to the heavy rainfall season in most of Alberta with total amounts ranging from 30 mm in the southwest up to 100 mm in the northwest and southeastern Peace region (Figure 6). This compares to ranges of 30-140mm for July and 50-140 mm for June. Given current soil moisture conditions, a return to Normal precipitation patterns should result in adequate crop growth over most of the province with the exception of south central Alberta. Dry conditions here, in and around the county of Warner, currently exist and as a result Above Normal precipitation will be needed to ensure good crop growth.

• Soil moisture levels were less than 50 mm of plant available water for most of the east half of the province with the exception being the northeast portion of the province. Almost the entire Peace region was predicted to have less than 50 mm of plant available water. Within these areas, at least half had soil moisture reserves of less than 25 mm. This is a situation requiring precipitation in the next week or so to maintain current crop conditions (Figure 7). However, for many of these areas, particularly in the south east and east central areas, soil moisture levels of below 50 mm represent an average condition which highlights the dependence of agriculture in these areas on regularly occurring timely rain fall events (Figure 8).
• Soil moisture levels are in Extreme Deficit for much of the northern and the extreme southwest portions of the Peace region, a condition that has improved slightly since the last report (July 18th). However, this result is based on precipitation data recorded at a single location (Near Manning). Locations currently experiencing areas with extreme soil moisture deficits in the Peace are the M.D.'s of Mackenzie, Northern Sunrise, Saddle Hills, Green View and the county of Grand Prairie. In the north half of Alberta, isolated pockets in this category can be found in the Counties of Lakeland, Woodlands, Yellowhead, Ponoka and Lacombe. Two small areas in the south can also be found in the M.D. of Pincher Creek and the county of Cardston.
• Well Below Normal moisture reserves are predicted to be present for most of the Peace region and parts of northern Alberta including the M.D. of Lesser Slave River and the counties of Athabasca and Lakeland. Most of the North West is also experiencing Well Below Normal soil moisture reserves. In the south Well Below Normal soil moisture reserves can be found in the M.D. of Pincher Creek and Cardston and Warner counties. The rest of the reporting area is mostly classified as having Normal soil moisture reserves, save for fringe areas bordering the Well Below Normal category where reserves are Below Normal and in the extreme northeast, east central and southeast where some counties are experiencing Well Above Normal to Extreme Surplus (Figure 9).