The Demographic Shift

Aging can be measured by absolute increase in the senior population and by the share of a community’s population that is senior. Between 1996 and 2006, the number of seniors in Canada’s predominantly rural regions grew by 20%. The same regions in Alberta saw a 21.4% increase. In all of Canada’s predominantly rural regions, the share of the senior population increased 2.1% between 1996 and 2006, but in Alberta that share increased by less than 1%.

The demographics of both Alberta’s and Canada’s rural northern regions are substantially different from other rural regions. Due to the fact that Aboriginal communities have higher birth rates, the higher proportion of Aboriginal people in the rural north makes it a younger rural region. In Alberta’s rural north, seniors only make up 2% of the population but the aging of that younger population means that between 1996 and 2006 there was a 59.1% increase in the number of seniors. However, in that same time period the increase in the share of the population that is senior only increased 0.2%.

Aging Communities
An aging community is defined as one in which the share of seniors in the population and the absolute number of seniors increased between 1986 and 2006. In Alberta (excluding those with a population of 250 or less), the proportion of aging communities was at 91% in urban regions, while 48% of communities in all predominantly rural regions were aging. In Canada, only 64% of communities in predominantly urban regions were aging, compared with 39% of all predominantly rural communities (Table 1). The high percentage of aging communities in Alberta and in Canada’s rural north reflects the transition of a comparatively younger population from under 65 years to senior over the course of 20 years. Provinces and communities that had older populations to begin with do not ‘age’ to the same extent.

Table 1. Percent of ‘aging’ communities in Alberta and Canada

	Predominantly urban regions	All predominantly rural regions	Rural metro-adjacent regions	Rural non-metro adjacent regions	Rural northern regions
Alberta	91	48	47	54	0
Canada	64	39	38	38	57

Within Canada, those communities aging in terms of an increase in the number of seniors are doing so due to the resident population ‘aging in place.’ But across Canada, 16% of communities are additionally aging due to in-migration of seniors.

Old Age Dependency Ratios and Aging Index
Canada-wide, the old age dependency ratio (the number of persons aged 65 and older per one hundred persons aged 15-64) has risen from 15 to 20 between 1986 and 2006. A rise has occurred across all rural regions, though the dependency ratio is lower in rural metro-adjacent regions than in non-metro adjacent regions. Rural metro-adjacent regions are within the commuting zone of the urban centre and so the difference in old age dependency ratio may reflect an increase in younger families migrating to metro-adjacent regions. Within Alberta the highest old age dependency ratio, according to 2006 census data, is 23.3 in the Camrose-Drumheller economic region, followed by the Lethbridge-Medicine Hat economic region at 21.1. The lowest ratio is in the Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake region at 9.1 seniors per 100 persons aged 15-64.

Conclusion
Overall, predominantly rural regions have the highest share of seniors, though their growth in absolute numbers of seniors is slower than urban regions. Predominantly rural regions are also characterized by a more rapid growth in old age dependency ratios than urban regions.

Though an increasing senior population may be cited as a challenge, there is also opportunity. With time to engage in cultural activities, local history and volunteering, seniors can contribute to the vitality of communities. With 21% growth in the number of seniors in rural communities between 1996 and 2006, and much of that growth due to aging in place, communities have an opportunity develop into senior-friendly places. Examples would include the development of condos/no-maintenance units for those people who are healthy but no longer want to engage in house and yard maintenance. Investment in a variety of health care and elderly care and services would be both economically and socially positive for communities. Economically, there would be the benefit of skilled jobs for local people, and socially, the possibility of aging in place and with grace, surrounded by a supportive network of friends and family. For small towns, this kind of investment may be beyond their capacity. In such an instance, a slightly broader, regional approach to developing health and elderly care services may be the more appropriate option.

Due to multiple definitions of ‘rural’ and ‘community,’ definitions are provided below for terms used in this discussion.

Rural: This paper follows the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development regional typology which defines a 'predominantly rural region' as having more than 50% of its population living in rural communities. A ‘rural community' has a population density of less than 150 persons per square kilometre. In Canada, census divisions are used to represent regions and census consolidated sub-divisions are used to represent communities (see below). Census division (CD): Census divisions are counties and municipal districts or their equivalents. Census subdivision (CSD): Census subdivisions are municipalities (i.e. incorporated towns, rural municipalities, cities, etc. determined by provincial legislation) or their equivalent such as Indian reserves, Indian settlements and unorganized territories. Census consolidated subdivision (CCS): A census consolidated subdivision is a grouping of census subdivisions. The general case is where a small town (i.e. a CSD) is surrounded by other rural municipalities (i.e. other CSDs) and this grouping of CSDs is consolidated to form a CCS. Predominantly urban regions are census divisions where less then 15% of the population lives in rural communities. Predominantly rural regions can be further broken down to recognize regional diversity. Rural metro-adjacent regions: predominantly rural census divisions which are adjacent to metropolitan centres. Rural non-metro-adjacent regions: predominantly rural census divisions which are not adjacent to metropolitan centres. Rural northern regions: includes census divisions that are found entirely, or a majority, above the 54th parallel in Alberta.

Sources:
Dandy, Kimberly and Ray Bollman. December 2008. Seniors in Rural Canada. Rural and Small Town Analysis Bulletin Vol. 7, No. 8. Catalogue no. 21-006-X. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.

Office of Statistics and Information. July 2008. Alberta Official Statistics Fact Sheets. Population and Demography, Dependency Ratios.