| | US crops | Canadian crops | Livestock comments
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US Crops
New crop corn futures prices struggled this week on ideas that planting weather would improve soon, and that much of the winter wheat being reseeded because of frost damage would be planted to corn. In last Monday's planting progress report, only 4 % of the corn was estimated to be planted, compared to the five-year average of 9 %. More rain delays will tend to support new crop corn at the expense of old crop futures. The outlook to the end of May is for wet conditions in the eastern US, but rapid progress can still be made if conditions dry out. Old crop corn futures were supported mid-week by futures spreading and a larger than expected weekly export sales number, but those gains were erased by Friday's close. Over the week, May corn futures lost 8 cents, and December corn lost 20 cents. Soybean prices were pushed 15 to 16 cents a bushel lower on ideas that acres too wet to plant corn would be seeded to soybeans, and also that South American exports were outcompeting US beans. After setting new contract highs the previous week, soyoil prices dropped sharply, testing the multi-month uptrend line on the price chart. Soyoil prices then rebounded on Friday, likely because of a recovery in crude oil prices. Wheat prices were supported this week by continued concerns of frost damage to the US winter wheat crop. Chicago soft red wheat prices gained 25 cents a bushel, Kansas City wheat was up 16 cents, and Minneapolis wheat futures gained only 6 cents. Additional slippage in Monday's wheat crop condition ratings will further support wheat prices, while little change in ratings could pressure wheat prices. Despite the frost event, there is apparently little correlation between an April frost and final wheat yields.
Canadian Crops
Old crop canola futures, after dropping $10/tonne by mid-week, recovered to close about unchanged. Old crop basis levels remain strong because of good near-term demand at Vancouver, and strong crush margins. Providing some new crop price support was a canola acreage estimate from Saskatchewan Agriculture of 6 % higher than last year. This was much less than the 20 % increase that had been talked about over the winter. The combination of high input prices and lower canola cash prices (especially old crop) may be discouraging canola seeding. On Tuesday, StatsCan releases their survey-based estimates of Canadian crop area.
May barley futures closed marginally lower on the week, while new crop futures lost $2/tonne. Feed wheat, on the other hand, continued last week's gains, and closed $2.50/tonne higher for July and $4.50/tonne higher for October. Edible pea prices remain strong, with $7/bushel still bid for old crop and $6+/bushel bid for new crop yellows.
Livestock Comments
US fed cattle traded $2/cwt lower last week, averaging near $96/cwt. Beef cutout values lost about $8/cwt over the week. April live cattle futures were off $1.40/cwt. US cash feeder cattle prices were quoted $4/cwt lower. On the price chart, the April live cattle futures gapped below the uptrend support line on Friday. The short-term technical indicators are weak. Friday's cattle on feed report numbers were near expectations, but will not be price supportive. March marketings were 6 % below last March, estimated April 1 cattle on feed numbers were only 1 % below year ago, and are the second highest in 10 years for that date. Grilling beef demand should improve soon to stabilize prices into May.
Alberta fed cattle traded a bit lower than last week in a $97 to $102/cwt range. Feeder steer averages were higher, while feeder heifer prices were a bit lower. Seven to eight weight steers averaged near $110/cwt, and heifers in the same weight range averaged $101. Slaughter cow prices weakened $1/cwt as the week progressed. The stronger Canadian dollar has been negative for our prices.
US pork cutout values improved a further $3.05/cwt over the week, supporting a $4/cwt rise in cash hog prices, as packers competed for declining slaughter-ready hog numbers. Estimated weekly hog slaughter numbers were 1.98 million head, 1.8% higher than the same week last year. Steady to stronger hog prices are expected into summer, when hog prices typically peak. The Western Hog Exchange quoted the weekly average Alberta base hog price at $1.33/kilogram, up from the $1.28/kg average the previous week. |
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