| | Over the next 50 to 100 years, Alberta’s climate is expected to become warmer and possibly drier than it is now. A longer, warmer growing season could allow irrigation farmers in southern Alberta to grow crops now grown in the central or southern U.S., or to harvest two crops per year of some current crops, like silage barley. But will there be enough water to grow those crops?
Alberta’s irrigation industry is acting now, through research and innovation, to meet the challenges and opportunities ahead.
Research: Bringing the future into focus
Almost all of Alberta’s irrigated land lies in the South Saskatchewan River Basin. This basin is the focus of a three-year research project called Climate Change and Water in the South Saskatchewan River Basin.
“Particularly in the South Saskatchewan River Basin, as population continues to grow, as economic activity continues to grow at unprecedented rates, the demand for water even today will put a significant strain on the water supply in the next two decades. If you place climate change on top of that, it adds even more complexity to the whole issue,” says Brent Paterson, Head of the Irrigation Branch of Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development.
Paterson is a member of the project’s advisory committee. He says, “We want to understand as quickly as we can what the impacts [of climate change] might look like, so that we can make the best use of the available water resources, from an agricultural, social and environmental standpoint.”
The project is being conducted by the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (see ‘A World of Change’ on the Prairies in this issue). It is evaluating the effects of climate change on water availability and the socio-economic implications of the changes in water availability.
A key aspect of the project is predicting the hydrologic conditions – like snow pack and snowmelt – in the Rocky Mountains. That’s very important because about 90% of the flow in the South Saskatchewan River originates in the Rockies. Unfortunately, that’s also very difficult. Most climate models are designed for a global or continental scale, not for areas the size of the South Saskatchewan River Basin. As well, the Rockies have a profound and complex influence on factors like air mass movements, precipitation, temperature and wind, adding a daunting complexity to the calculations.
Having a clearer picture of the future is especially urgent because changes to water management infrastructure can take years of planning and development. Paterson says, “As an example, we now count on our snowmelt to occur in the Rocky Mountains in April, May and June. We begin operating things like reservoirs, canals and diversion canals when the main snowmelt is occurring, so we can fill up off-stream reservoirs. One suggestion is that we may have snowmelt periods in January or early February and then have the weather get cold again. We don’t currently operate [irrigation infrastructure] in winter because of concerns like ice freeze-up and blockages. But we may have to consider adapting our infrastructure systems to capture the snowmelt when it comes, rather than losing early melt-water and then not having sufficient water later.”
Innovation & Action
Paterson is confident in agriculture’s ability to adapt to climate change. “With improvements in irrigation technologies and management, we’re using 30% less water to grow a crop today than we did 25 years ago. We expect to see even further improvements in efficiency.”
For instance, the Irrigation Branch is working with Alberta’s irrigation districts on an irrigation measurement and modeling program. Paterson says, “Within the irrigation districts, which are the largest areas of irrigated land in the province, we know for every parcel of irrigated land, how much water is used each year, what crop is being grown, and what irrigation system is used.”
That information helps the districts and farmers to better understand the current situation and to make well-informed decisions on crop and irrigation system options. Branch staff are also using the program to assess the effects of higher temperatures on crop water needs and the implications for irrigation districts.
Paterson concludes, “The agriculture industry has faced adaptive requirements in every decade – pest management, too much rain, too little rain. We are seeing huge advances in crop genetics, integrated pest management, water management. ...There may be some hard decisions to make, but they won’t be decisions made out of ignorance or panic. They’ll be made to make the best use of economic opportunities.” |
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