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Crop Conditions as of October 16, 2018
Overall, minimal harvest progress was achieved this reporting period. Last week the average of Major Crops* harvested was 46.7 per cent as compared to this week we are up 3.2 points to 49.9 per cent. Over 95 per cent of peas are in the bin with the exception of Peace Region which has only 66.9 per cent (See Table 1). Producers who took advantage of the small windows of opportunity to combine were taking the crops off tough or damp and have been busy drying their grain. Frost was prevalent across the province which will tell in the grades of canola that may have had a higher green count or not yet mature. There are some reports of sprouted cereals in areas due to the moisture and lodging that occurred from heavier snowfall. Combines are already out in the field with the warm and drier weather, and with more of the same forecasted for next week hopefully considerable crop will be harvested in the coming days.
Due to lack of harvest progress, very little change was reported in yield estimates from this week compared to last (See Table 2). To date yield estimates are at 46.4 bushels per acre for spring wheat, 32.9 for durum, 59.0 for barley, 77.5 for oats, 39.2 for canola and 39.9 for peas as a provincial average. The condition ratings for fall seeded crops are currently 63.2 per cent rated as good or excellent, as reported for South, Central and North East regions.
On a positive note, provincial soil moisture ratings are gradually improving. The average surface soil moisture is currently 74.3 rated good or excellent, with the South at 41.6 per cent and North East bringing up the average at 97.2 per cent (See Map). Sub surface soil moisture provincial average is 57.4 per cent rated as good or excellent, with the same pattern displaying low percentages for the South at 20.0 per cent and with North East higher at 86.0 per cent. The up side of the recent moisture is that it will help the pasture and hay for next year. Overall pasture ratings have improved and are currently reported as 25.6 poor, 40.3 fair, 31.2 good, and 3.0 excellent.
REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS:
The 2018 Alberta Crop Report Series continues to provide summaries for the following five regions:
Region One: Southern (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)
- Weather early last week continued to hold up harvest. Progress in the South is approximately 74 per cent combined with an additional 10 per cent in the swath. Crops still lagging are canola at 57, flax at 62, dry beans at 52 and sugar beets at 32 per cent. Grain corn and sunflowers estimated to start next week.
- Quality of crops in the bin are estimated to be in excellent condition with 79 per cent of canola as 1Can, spring wheat 94 and durum 88 in the top two grades, malt barley 42 and 1CW is 48, and 96 per cent of peas in the top two grades.
- Surface soil moisture remained static at 87 per cent rated fair or good compared to 86 last week. Sub-surface soil moisture is currently rated as 74 per cent fair or good, compared to 73 per cent last week.
- Fall seeded crops have benefitted from recent moisture and are rated as 64 per cent good or excellent.
Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)
- Weather conditions have been poor this reporting period with snow, moisture and cloudy days that have prevented crops from being harvested. Major Crops* combined are estimated at 45 per cent with 25 per cent in the swath.
- Quality of crops in the bin are estimated to be in excellent condition with 74 per cent of canola as 1Can, spring wheat 75 and durum 60 in the top two grades, malt barley 23 and 1CW is 55, and 78 per cent of peas are in the top two grades.
- Surface soil moisture ratings are at 76 per cent rated good or excellent with 14 per cent excessive compared to 81 good or excellent with 10 per cent excessive last week. Sub-surface soil moisture is currently rated as 62 per cent good or excellent and 6 per cent excessive, compared to last weeks ratings of 65 per cent good or excellent and 2 per cent excessive.
- Fall seeded crops are rated as 65 per cent good or excellent.
Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)
- Little change in acres harvested due to continuing snow and rain during this reporting period. Major Crops* combined are estimated at 44 per cent with 33 per cent in the swath.
- Quality of crops in the bin are estimated to be in excellent condition with 98 per cent of canola as 1Can, spring wheat is 75 in top two grades, malt barley 8 and 1CW 77, with 75 per cent of peas in top two grades.
- Surface soil moisture remained static at 97 per cent rated good or excellent. Sub-surface soil moisture is currently rated as 86 per cent good or excellent, as it was it was last week.
- Fall seeded crops remain unchanged from last week with 90 per cent rated as fair or good.
Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)
- The continued snow and rain during this reporting period stalled harvest further. The counties surrounding Edmonton and to the west are reporting standing water in the fields. Major Crops* combined are estimated at 31 per cent with 42 per cent in the swath.
- Quality of crops in the bin are estimated to be in excellent condition with 97 per cent of canola as 1Can, spring wheat 88 in top two grades, malt barley 2 and 1CW is 89, with 77 per cent of peas in top two grades.
- Surface soil moisture remained fairly static at 86 per cent rated good or excellent compared to 85 good or excellent last week. Sub-surface soil moisture is currently rated as 65 per cent fair or good, compared to last weeks ratings of 57 per cent fair or good.
Region Five: Peace River (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)
- Cold and snow kept most producers out of their fields this past reporting period. Major Crops* combined are estimated at 45 per cent with 25 per cent in the swath. A lot of canola in the swath – 48 per cent.
- Estimates of crop quality are lower with 36 per cent of canola as 1Can, 39 grading at 3Can and Sample, spring wheat at 24 in the top two grades with 68 per cent rated as feed, malt barley 16 and 1CW is 79, and 81 per cent of peas in the top two grades.
- Surface soil moisture ratings are at 91 per cent rated good or excellent with 9 per cent excessive compared to 90 good or excellent with 10 excessive last week. Sub-surface soil moisture remained static with ratings of 84 per cent good or excellent and 6 per cent excessive.
Z. Sangster & J. Sanden Product Coordinators
email: zsuzsanna.sangster@afsc.ca
email: jackie.sanden@afsc.ca
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation
Business Risk Management Products Unit
Lacombe, Alberta
October 19, 2018
Note to Users: The contents of this document may not be used or reproduced without properly accrediting Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, Economics and Competitiveness Branch, Statistics and Data Development Section.
The 2018 Alberta crop reporting series is available on the Internet at: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sdd4191
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