Crop Conditions as of October 4, 2016

 
 
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Crop Conditions as of October 4, 2016

Producers were able to take full advantage of a few days of good weather last week to push the provincial harvest percentage up to 69% complete before wet weather again enveloped the province (See Table #1). Producers in the Peace region saw the first significant snowfall of the season with 15 cm covering much of the region.

Yield estimates improved in 3 of the 5 regions which resulted in the provincial yield index rising 1 point to 114.0 (See Table #2). The provincial index has improved with every report from its initial value of 109.2 on July 26. Yields this year are approximately 25 – 30% above 2015 yields. Spring wheat yield estimates improved in all regions to 53.6 bushels per acre from 52.3 bushels on September 20. Yields for durum, barley, oats and canola were unchanged while dry pea yields dropped slightly to 44.2 bushels from 44.6 bushels per acre.

Crop quality is starting to decline due to the extended harvest season. Hard red spring wheat quality has dropped to 77% reported in the top 2 grades from 81% two weeks ago. The 5 year average is 78% with the 10 year at 76%. Barley quality has dropped to 87% grading 1 CW or better from 89% with the 5 year average at 84% and the 10 year at 81%. Canola quality at 87% grading 1-Canada is currently well ahead of its 5 year and 10 year averages of 81% and 79% respectively. 74% of the dry pea crop is currently graded in top 2 grades in line with 5 and 10 year historical values.



REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS:
The 2016 Alberta Crop Report Series continues to provide summaries for the following five regions:

Region One: Southern (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)

  • Harvest of cereal and oilseeds is nearly complete in most areas leaving mostly specialty crops to finish up.
  • 11% of canola crop remains standing indicating it will likely be straight cut.
  • Main sugar beet harvest is underway with 19% harvested.
  • Yield index improved again this week to 107.1. Yield improvements noted for spring wheat, oats, winter wheat and dry peas. Only durum reported a small decline.
  • Crop condition rating of fall seeded crops declined 1 point to 87% rated good or excellent
  • 83% of HRS wheat and 75% of durum falling in top 2 grades for quality. Only 80% of canola grading 1-Canada
Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)
  • Harvest has progressed to 59% complete. Stopped by rain last weekend.
  • Over 20% of crops remain standing. Some acres for straight cutting but likely many acres remain standing due to reluctance of producers to lay crop on the wet ground with no extended dry weather in the forecast.
  • Significant improvement in the yield index over last report. Yield estimates improved for spring wheat, durum, oats and canola. Yield declines reported for barley, winter wheat and dry peas.
  • Crop condition rating for fall seeded crops declined to 68% rated good or excellent from 70% last week.
  • 70% of the hard red spring wheat is rated in top 2 grades for quality with 9% rated Canada Feed. Very low assessment of 69% of the canola currently grading 1-Canada though still early with only 50% of crop harvested.
Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)
  • Couple of good harvest days early in the week was shut down by rain on the weekend with amounts to 25 mm.
  • Standing water an issue in low areas.
  • Yield index was little changed as improvements in spring wheat, barley, oats and winter wheat were offset by yield declines in canola and dry peas.
  • 78% of hard red spring wheat grading in top 2 grades. 94% of canola grading 1-Canada. Less than 60% of dry pea crop grading for food usage in the top 2 grades.
  • Hay quality disappointing with 44% of 1st and 2nd cut crops each grading poor or fair.
Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)
  • Harvest improved 20 points to 52% complete before being shut down by rain on the weekend.
  • Over 22% of all crops remain standing but spring wheat, barley and oats averaging 35% standing.
  • Yield index declined by nearly 1 point for the region as small reductions to yield were noted for all crops except spring wheat which was unchanged.
  • 89% of hard red spring wheat currently grading in top 2 grades. 99% of canola grading 1-Canada. Only 56% of dry peas are grading food quality in top 2 grades.
  • Almost 70% of the 1st cut hay crop and 56% of the 2nd cut crop is rated as poor to fair for quality.
Region Five: Peace River (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)
  • Very good harvest progress achieved this week to 73% complete before being shut down by heavy rains and snow late into the week and on the weekend.
  • 30% of the spring wheat, barley and oats remain standing and will be seriously impacted by the 5 inches of snow which was received in many areas of the region.
  • Yield index rose 2 points to 114.3 based upon yield improvements of approximately 1 bu/acre to the two largest crops in the region namely spring wheat and canola. Barley, oats and dry peas saw small yield declines.
  • 15% of the hard red spring wheat is expected to grade Canada Feed with only 63% grading in the top 2 grades. 93% of the canola is grading 1-Canada. Only 45% of the dry peas are grading food quality in the top 2 grades.
  • 60% of the hay crop is expected to grade as poor or fair for quality.

Agriculture Financial Services Corporation
James Wright, Risk Analyst
Actuarial, Analytics & Forecasting Unit
E-mail: james.wright@afsc.ca
Phone: 403-782-8336
Lacombe, Alberta

October 7, 2016

Note to Users: The contents of this document may not be used or reproduced without properly accrediting Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, Economics and Competitiveness Branch, Statistics and Data Development Section
The 2016 Alberta crop reporting series is available on the Internet at: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sdd4191


 
 
 
 
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This document is maintained by Samantha Wallbank.
This information published to the web on October 7, 2016.
Last Reviewed/Revised on October 28, 2016.