Crop Conditions as of August 23, 2016

 
 
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Crop Conditions as of August 23, 2016

The wet weather pattern that has persisted throughout the entire growing season continued to affect the province this week with amounts varying from showers in the South to light rain in the Central and North East regions and heavy rain in the North West. Only the Peace received an extended period of dry weather which allowed crops to mature and harvest to get underway before precipitation shut operations down. The map below shows the accumulative rainfall since April 1. Actually, very little of this precipitation fell prior to mid-May so virtually two-thirds of the province has received 350 mm (14 inches) or more of precipitation since May 20 (See Map). Harvest progress has been minimal this week, advancing by less than 4 percentage points to 6% of crops in the bin (See Table 1). An additional 6% of crops are swathed.

The provincial yield index moved up slightly with yield improvements projected for spring wheat, durum, oats and winter wheat (See Table 2).Yield estimates for barley, canola and peas declined marginally. The yield of field peas in the North East and North West regions has been extremely variable. Pea harvest has been slowed in these regions by flattened crop.

Pasture and hay continue to be rated highly with 77% rated in good or excellent condition. 2nd cut haying is underway in all regions except the Peace which is not expecting a 2nd crop. Early second cut yields are very good and quality is fair to good depending on harvesting delays due to precipitation.

REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS:
The 2016 Alberta Crop Report Series continues to provide summaries for the following five regions:

Region One: Southern (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)
  • Harvest percentage rose to 17% versus 9% last week and the 5 year average of 12%. 12% of the spring wheat, 9% of the durum, 19% of the barley, 53% of winter cereals and 62% of field peas have been harvested.
  • 16% of canola has been swathed with 5% in the bin, behind the 5 yr ave. of 34% swathed and 7% harvested.
  • Regional yield index rose 1 point to 97% based upon higher projections for spring wheat, durum and oats, yields declined on barley, and were near unchanged on winter wheat, canola and field peas.
  • 72% of region is rated good or excellent for sub soil moisture, down 3 percentage points. 1.2% of the region is rated excessive. 61% of hay and pastures are rated good or excellent, up 5 points.
Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)
  • Harvest progress was minimal over the week due to the wet conditions. Less than 2% of crops have been harvested to date slightly behind the 5 year average. 1% of the spring wheat, durum and barley, 25% of the field peas and 53% of the winter wheat have been harvested.
  • 5% of canola has been swathed, nothing combined, well behind the 5 yr ave. of 21% swathed & 1% combined.
  • Regional yield index rose nearly 4 points based upon higher projections for all crops but particularly durum, oats, winter wheat and field peas which rose between 4 & 7 bushels per acre.
  • 84% of region is rated good or excellent for sub soil moisture, up 3 percentage points. Excessive moisture ratings rose to 4% from 2% last week. Hay and pasture ratings improved to 77% good or excellent, up 2 points.
Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)
  • Start of harvest has been delayed by wet weather though still slightly ahead of the 5 year average due to higher harvested percentages for field peas. Overall, harvest is a little behind this year as less swathing has occurred to date compared to the average. Less than 1% of spring cereals have been harvested. 33% of the peas harvested.
  • 9% of canola has been swathed, nothing combined. This compares to the 5 yr ave of 15% swathed, 0 combined.
  • Regional yield index declined 1 percentage point based upon lower yield projections for spring wheat and field peas. The canola yield improved slightly to 46 bushels per acre.
  • Sub soil moisture ratings declined 2 points this week to 82% rated good or excellent. Soil moisture rated as excessive in 1.5% of the region. Hay and pasture ratings declined 1 point to 96% rated good or excellent.
Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)
  • The region is extremely wet based upon heavy rains received across the region which has resulted in flooding in some areas. Excessive moisture rating has rose to over 8% of the region from 3% last week. Harvest operations have been minimal with most work occurring on field peas. Only 1% of crops have been swathed to date.
  • Very little swathing has occurred on canola with under 2% swathed versus 5 yr average of 13%.
  • Regional yield index slipped 2 points due to projected declines for most crops of 0.5-1 bushel per acre. Exception is field peas showing a reduction in projected yield of 6 bushels per acre.
  • Subsoil moisture ratings declined 1 point to 87% rated good or excellent. Hay and pasture ratings declined 5 points, in large part due to the excessive moisture.
Region Five: Peace River (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)
  • Region received some good weather which provided an opportunity to get harvest underway. Combining is slightly ahead of the 5 year average but swathing at 10% is a little behind the 5 year number of 15%.
  • 39% of field peas have been combined compared to the 5 year average of 31%. 17% of canola has been swathed versus 5 year average of 27%.
  • Regional yield index declined 1 point to 109.5%. Yield projection improvements were reported on spring wheat and field peas. Yield projection declines of 1-2 bushels per acre provided for barley, oats and canola.
  • Subsoil moisture ratings were virtually unchanged at 85% rated good or excellent. Excessive moisture declined to 4% of the region. Hay and pasture ratings are unchanged at 79% rated good or excellent.

Agriculture Financial Services Corporation
James Wright, Risk Analyst
Actuarial, Analytics & Forecasting Unit
E-mail: james.wright@afsc.ca
Phone: 403-782-8336
Lacombe, Alberta

August 26, 2016

Note to Users: The contents of this document may not be used or reproduced without properly accrediting Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, Economics and Competitiveness Branch, Statistics and Data Development Section
The 2016 Alberta crop reporting series is available on the Internet at: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sdd4191


 
 
 
 
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This document is maintained by Samantha Wallbank.
This information published to the web on August 26, 2016.
Last Reviewed/Revised on September 2, 2016.