Crop Conditions as of July 26, 2016

 
 
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Crop Conditions as of July 26, 2016

Warmer temperatures covered the province but the persistent showery weather continued in most regions affecting haying progress principally but also crop conditions. The provincial crop condition rating was virtually unchanged from last week at 82.5% of crops rated in good or excellent condition compared to the 5 year average of 72% and the longer historical average of 65%. See Table #1. Increases to regional ratings in the South and North West were offset by declines in the Central and North East. Most spring cereal crops have completed pollination with canola averaging 60% podded and field peas at 88% podded. Mustard, chickpeas & lentils are 75 – 80% podded.

The initial yield estimates of the season are shown on Table #2. Not surprisingly, initial provincial estimates for most crops fall 5 – 10% above their 5 year averages based upon the above average crop conditions experienced this year. Surface soil moisture ratings declined 2 points to 85% rated good or excellent while sub soil moisture was unchanged at 80%. Pasture ratings improved 2 percentage points to 77% good or excellent with tame hay ratings up similarly to 75%. Dryland haying has been slowed by the lack of a prolong period of dry weather. Only 65% of the 1st cut crop has been baled and quality has been adversely affected. Yields are poor in the South, disappointing in the Central, but good to very good in the North East, North West and Peace regions. 2nd cut irrigated haying has started in southern Alberta.



REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS:
The 2016 Alberta Crop Report Series continues to provide summaries for the following five regions:

Region One: Southern (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)

  • Crop Development – Spring cereals in late filling stage; Winter cereals range from hard dough to ripe; Canola, lentils, chickpeas & mustards are 80% podded; Field peas are 91% podded.
  • Harvest has started on winter wheat & field peas in eastern portion of the region.
  • Crop Condition Ratings - Improved 3 points on the week to 69% good or excellent; below 5 yr average of 79%.
  • Surface soil moisture ratings unchanged at 70% good or excellent; sub soil ratings up 1 point at 59%; pasture ratings improved 5 points to 50% good or excellent; tame hay ratings rose 3 points to 44%.
  • Initial yield estimates have spr. cereals, winter wheat & canola at 95% of their 5 yr ave; field peas at 90%.
  • 1st Cut Hay – Dryland: 96% complete; Irrigated: 100% complete. 2nd Cut Irrigated Hay – 14% baled.
Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)
  • Crop Development – Spring cereals in early filling stage; Winter cereals in hard dough; Canola is 50% podded; Field peas are 83% podded.
  • Crop Condition Ratings – Marginal decline on the week to 82% good or excellent; above 5 yr average of 71%.
  • Surface soil moisture ratings declined 7 points to 85% good or excellent; sub soil ratings dropped 6 points to 84%; pasture ratings fell 2 points to 81% good or excellent; tame hay ratings declined 7 points to 75%.
  • Initial yield estimates have spr. cereals, canola & peas at 10-15% above 5 yr ave; winter cereals at 5 yr ave.
  • 1st Cut Dryland Hay – 62% baled. Yield is below average. Quality rated 50% good or excellent.
Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)
  • Crop Development – Spring cereals in mid to late pollination stage; Canola is 60% podded; Field peas are 93% podded.
  • Crop Condition Ratings – Marginal decline on the week to 93% good or excellent; above 5 yr average of 73%.
  • Surface soil moisture ratings declined 1 point to 95% good or excellent; sub soil ratings rose 1 point to 92%; pasture ratings were unchanged at 98% good or excellent; tame hay ratings increased 1 point to 98%.
  • Initial yield estimates have crops at 15-20% above 5 yr ave; estimates are higher than 2013, except for canola.
  • 1st Cut Dryland Hay – 42% baled. Yield is average. Quality rated 65% good or excellent.
Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)
  • Crop Development – Spring cereals entering filling stage; Canola is 37% podded; Field peas are 92% podded.
  • Crop Condition Ratings – Improved 2 points on the week to 97% good or excellent; above 5 yr average of 67%. Canola ratings rose 4 points as a drier weather bias in the north portion of the region allowed soils to drain.
  • Surface soil moisture ratings declined 2 points to 96% good or excellent; sub soil ratings rose 11 points to 94%; pasture ratings increased 14 points to 87% good or excellent; tame hay ratings rose 25 points to 100%.
  • Initial yield estimates have crops except canola at 20-30% above 5 yr ave; canola estimated at 10% above average; initial yield estimates for spr. wheat, barley & field peas are well above those of 2013.
  • 1st Cut Dryland Hay – 55% baled. Yield is average to above average. Quality rated 36% good or excellent.
Region Five: Peace River (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)
  • Crop Development – Spring cereals in early to mid filling stage; Canola is 70% podded; Field peas are 81% podded.
  • Crop Condition Ratings – Unchanged on the week at 81% rated good or excellent; above 5 yr average of 61%. Canola ratings rose 1 point while spring wheat ratings declined 2 points.
  • Surface soil moisture ratings unchanged at 90% good or excellent; sub soil ratings near unchanged at 84%; pasture and tame hay ratings near unchanged at 81% and 79% good or excellent respectively.
  • Initial yield estimates have spring cereals at 3% above 5 yr ave; canola and peas estimated at 10% above ave.
  • 1st Cut Dryland Hay – 55% baled. Yield is average to above average. Quality rated 64% good or excellent.
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation
James Wright, Risk Analyst
Actuarial, Analytics & Forecasting Unit
E-mail: james.wright@afsc.ca
Phone: 403-782-8336
Lacombe, Alberta
July 28, 2016


Note to Users: The contents of this document may not be used or reproduced without properly accrediting Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, Economics and Competitiveness Branch, Statistics and Data Development Section
The 2016 Alberta crop reporting series is available on the Internet at: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sdd4191


 
 
 
 
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This information published to the web on July 29, 2016.
Last Reviewed/Revised on August 26, 2016.