Alberta Crop Conditions as of October 6, 2015

 
 
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This information has been made available by Agriculture Financial Services Corporation.

Alberta Crop Conditions as of October 6, 2015

Producers were able to make good use of a few days of good harvest weather this past week before being shut down again by cool, wet conditions on the weekend. Over 72% of the province has now been harvested, up 15 percentage points from last week. A further 17% of crops in the province are in the swath with 11% remaining standing. In 2014, 82% of harvest in the province had been completed. Most areas received between 15 – 50 mm of rain this past week end with light snow reported along the foothills. Hard frosts were reported on several days which should be beneficial in killing off green growth and enhancing dry down.

Reported yields for all crops continue to improve in all regions. The provincial yield index improved to 87% of the 5 year yield average, up 3.5 index points from 2 weeks ago. Yields remain below long term averages but better than originally anticipated reflecting the good soil moisture conditions early in the season and the willingness of producers in all regions to use good soil moisture conservation production practices. Crop quality has declined due to the slowness of the harvest progress though generally is in line with the longer term 5 and 10 year averages. 76% of the spring wheat is grading #1 or #2 CWRS with 8% grading Canada Feed. Long term 10 year averages are 71% grading #1 & #2 with 9% grading Canada Feed. 82% of canola is expected to grade 1 Canada versus the 10 year average of 79%.

The crop condition ratings of the 2015/16 fall seeded crops are: 8% Poor; 27% Fair; 49% Good; 16% Excellent.

Provincial soil moisture ratings continue to improve as a result of the continuing precipitation. Surface moisture is rated 60% good or excellent while sub soil moisture is rated at 51% good or excellent.


Regional Assessments:
The 2015 Alberta Crop Report Series provides summaries for the following five regions:

Region One: Southern (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)
  • Harvest is virtually completed with the exception of some late harvested crops such as sugar beets, grain corn, flax.
  • The regional 5 year yield index sits at 82.0%, the lowest of all regions and 5 index points below the provincial average.
  • Spring wheat yields at 84% of their 5 year average, durum at 78%, barley at 87%, canola at 79%.
  • 55% of surface soil moisture and 48% of sub soil moisture rated good or excellent.
  • Approximately 75% of fall seeded crops are grown in this region. Crop conditions are rated 8% Poor; 24% Fair; 48% Good; 20% Excellent.
Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)
  • Harvest progress advanced by more than 20 percentage points this past week to 61% complete & 20% swathed.
  • The regional 5 year yield index sits at 90.8%, up more than 1 index point from last report.
  • Spring wheat yields at 90% of their 5 year average, durum at 74%, barley at 92%, canola at 93%.
  • 66% of surface soil moisture and 72% of sub soil moisture rated good or excellent.
Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)
  • Harvest progress advanced by 14 percentage points for the week to 58% complete & 32% swathed.
  • The regional 5 year yield index showed another big increase this week and sits at 85.7%, up 4.5 index points.
  • Spring wheat yields at 86% of their 5 year average, barley at 78%, canola at 89%.
  • 70% of surface soil moisture and 57% of sub soil moisture rated good or excellent.
Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)
  • Harvest progress advanced 11 percentage points for the week to 52% complete & 31% swathed.
  • The regional 5 year average yield index increased more than 6 index points to 86.0% this week due to significant yield improvements for all crops, but specifically barley and canola.
  • Spring wheat yields at 88% of their 5 year average, barley at 80%, canola at 87%.
  • 33% of surface soil moisture and 14% of sub soil moisture rated good or excellent.
Region Five: Peace River (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)
  • Harvest progress is second highest of the regions with 85% complete, up 17 percentage points for the week. 8% swathed.
  • The regional 5 year yield index rose almost 3 index points to 94.4% based upon yield improvements to all crops but particularly a 1 bushel/acre increase to canola since last reported.
  • Spring wheat yields at 85% of their 5 year average, barley at 97%, canola at 100%.
  • 44% of surface soil moisture and 38% of sub soil moisture rated good or excellent.

James Wright, Risk Analyst
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation
Actuarial, Analytics & Forecasting Unit
Lacombe, Alberta
Email: james.wright@afsc.ca
Telephone: (403)782-8336

October 9, 2015



 
 
 
 
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This document is maintained by Gail Atkinson.
This information published to the web on October 9, 2015.