This information has been made available by Agriculture Financial Services Corporation.
Alberta Crop Conditions as of September 8, 2015
Producers were only able to make limited harvest progress this past week as a general rain covered virtually all areas of the province. Beginning Friday of the long weekend, amounts of 35 – 60 mm fell in the South, Central, North East and North West regions while lesser amounts of 15 – 30 mm fell across the Peace. Harvest progress is currently approaching 31% completed, up from 21% last week, with an additional 25% in the swath. Harvest is most advanced in the South region with 55% combined and 19% swathed. The remainder of the province varies from 14 – 25% completed with the Central region being the slowest.
Harvested yields continue to improve as more production data becomes available. Producers are reporting that yields are above expectation. Yield estimates continue to show the effects of the early dryness of May and June. Provincial yield index has improved from 74% of the 5 year average in late July to 81% in this report. Regional yield indexes have improved by 2 – 4 percentage points in all regions since the last report of yields on August 25th with the greatest improvement in the Central region. Early quality indications for the production already harvested point to grades well above 5 and 10 year averages.
The precipitation during August and early September has brought a significant improvement in soil moisture conditions. Soil moistures in South and Central regions are returning to normal levels while the dryness continues, though improved, in the regions North East and North West of Edmonton. In the Peace, soil moisture remains a concern in the north and south portions of the region but is returning to more normal levels in the central. Provincially, subsoil moisture is rated 21% Poor (-4 points); 41% Fair (-2 points); 35% Good (+4 points); 3% Excellent (+2 points) and will likely improve further when it can be better assessed.
The 2015 Alberta Crop Report Series provides summaries for the following five regions:
Region One: Southern (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)
Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)
- Harvest progressing well in most counties. Significantly slower in counties directly east of Calgary to the Saskatchewan border due to greater precipitation in the upper portion of the region.
- Region averaging 55% harvested with further 19% swathed.
- Yield index improved 3 points from 2 weeks ago to 80.9% of the 5 year average. Spring wheat yielding @ 81%, Durum @ 76%, Barley @ 86%, Canola @ 74% of their 5 year averages.
- Subsoil moisture improved from 26% to 29% rated good or excellent.
Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)
- Harvest progress fairly consistent across the region with 14% harvested and 23% swathed.
- Yield index rose over 4 points to 84.5% of the 5 year average. Spring wheat yielding @ 82%, Durum wheat @ 63%, Barley @ 89%, Canola @ 86% of their 5 year averages.
- Subsoil moisture ratings showed significant improvement to 61% rated good or excellent from 43% last week.
Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)
- Region was able to make good harvest progress over the week despite being rain shortened with 25% harvested and 31% swathed.
- Yield index increased 2 points to 79.9% of the 5 year average. Spring wheat yielding @ 78%, Barley @ 74%, Canola @ 84% of their 5 year averages.
- Subsoil moisture ratings showed a modest improvement to 40% rated good or excellent from 38% last week.
Region Five: Peace River (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)
- 23% harvested and an additional 23% of crops have been swathed.
- Yield index showing a near 2 point increase from 2 weeks ago to 78.6% of the 5 year average. Spring wheat and barley yields were reported higher while oats, canola and field pea yields declined slightly.
- Spring wheat yielding @ 81%, Barley @ 73%, Canola @ 79% of their 5 year averages.
- Subsoil moisture ratings showed little improvement to 15% rated good or excellent from 14% last week.
- Harvest progress showed modest improvement to 25% completed from 18% last week. 34% of the crops in the region have been swathed, heavily weighted by canola at 60% swathed.
- Yield index for the region rose to 85.5% of the 5 year average, from 83.1%. Reported yields were little changed from 2 weeks ago with the exception of canola which increase by nearly 1.5 bushels per acre.
- Spring wheat yielding @ 76%, Barley @ 95%, Canola @ 89% of their 5 year averages.
- Subsoil moisture ratings improved 4 points to 30% rated good or excellent.
James Wright, Risk Analyst
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation
Actuarial, Analytics & Forecasting Unit
September 11, 2015