Crop Conditions as of October 17, 2017

 
 
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Crop Conditions as of October 17, 2017

Despite weather which was not ideal, producers were able to make good harvest progress this past week improving the harvest percentage in the province to 86% completed, up 9 points on the week though lagging the 5 year average of 93% (See Table #1). Harvest is virtually complete in the South and nearing completion in the Central region. In the North East and North West regions, producers had to contend with wet weather which included wet snow in amounts of up to 6 inches which flattened standing cereal crops. Virtually all cereals are now being harvested tough and will require drying. Much of the Peace region received 4-5 days of good harvest weather and was able to make significant progress.

Dryland yield estimates improved marginally, raising the yield index to 97.8% (See Table #2). The index declined in the South, was unchanged in the North East while improving in the Central, North West and Peace regions. Provincially, 2017 yields are 10-15% less than last year and 5-10% below their 5 year averages.

Crop Quality is beginning to reflect the effect of the slow harvest progress in the North. Currently, 88% of the HRS wheat is in the top 2 grades, down from 92% two weeks ago and 82% of the barley is grading 1 CW or better, down from 85%.

Surface and subsoil moisture ratings remain unchanged from 2 weeks ago. Surface moisture is rated 67% good or excellent with 1.5% rated excessive. Sub soil moisture is rated 60% good or excellent with 1.2% rated excessive.

Next Crop Report will be surveyed October 31st and released November 3rd.



REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS:
The 2017 Alberta Crop Report Series continues to provide summaries for the following five regions:

Region One: Southern (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)
  • Moisture received in the snowfall several weeks ago is being removed by strong winds and warm temperatures.
  • Harvest is complete with exception of remaining sugar beets, grain corn and sunflowers.
  • Crop yield index declined modestly as all crops had their yields reduced by 0.5 bu/acre.
  • Surface soil moisture improved to 38% rated good or excellent from 33% two weeks ago. Sub soil moisture rating unchanged at 34% good or excellent.
  • Condition of fall seeded crops improving with 46% rated good/excellent from 34%.
Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)
  • Good weather in much of the region with the exception of light snow received along the foothills.
  • Yield Index increased principally on increases of near 1 bu/acre to spring wheat and canola.
  • Quality remains high with 93% of HRS wheat & 92% of durum in top 2 grades, 87% of barley grading 1 CW or better, 80% of canola grading 1-Can, and 92% of field peas grading 2-Can or better.
  • Surface soil moisture declined to 58% rated good/excellent from 65% two weeks ago. Sub soil moisture showed a small improvement to 37% rated good or excellent from 35%.
  • Fall seeded crop conditions rated 43% good or excellent.
Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)
  • Only 2-3 days of harvest conditions this week. Snow and rain delayed progress early in the week.
  • Producers mindful of what occurred last year and taking every opportunity to get crops harvested.
  • Yield Index near unchanged as a yield increase in spring wheat offset by reductions to canola and field peas.
  • Quality estimates starting to decline. 91% of HRS wheat in top 2 grades compared to 98% two weeks ago.
  • Surface soil moisture ratings unchanged at 94% good or excellent with 1.2% rated excessive. Sub soil moisture ratings improved 2 points to 92% good or excellent; Excessive moisture declined to 2.1%
Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)
  • Difficult week for harvesting. Only areas which received little or no snow were able to do some combining.
  • Producers mindful of what occurred last year and taking every opportunity to get crops harvested.
  • Yield Index showed significant improvement with 2 bu/ac increase to spr. wheat & 1 bu/ac increase to canola.
  • Crop quality seeing a significant reduction. 69% of HRS wheat grading in top 2 grades compared to 86% two weeks ago. 61% of barley grading 1 CW or better compared to 86%. 87% of canola grading 1-Can versus 98%.
  • Surface soil moisture rated unchanged at 92% good or excellent. 3.6% rated excessive. Sub soil moisture rated unchanged at 71% good or excellent. 0.7% of region rated excessive.
Region Five: Peace River (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)
  • Most of the region received 4-5 days of good harvesting conditions before wet weather returned.
  • Yield Index improved based upon 0.5 bu/acre yield increases to spring wheat and canola.
  • Quality estimates have been affected modestly despite slow harvest progress. 92% of spring wheat in top 2 grades compared to 95% two weeks ago. 97% of canola grading 1-Can versus 98% prior.
  • Surface soil moisture ratings declined 2 points to 73% good/excellent as excessive rating rose 2 points to 6.2%. Subsoil moisture was unchanged at 60% rated good or excellent with 4.6% rated excessive.

James Wright, Risk Analyst
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation
Actuarial, Analytics & Forecasting Unit
Lacombe, Alberta
E-mail: james.wright@afsc.ca
Phone: 403-782-8336

October 20, 2017


Note to Users: The contents of this document may not be used or reproduced without properly accrediting Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, Economics and Competitiveness Branch, Statistics and Data Development Section
The 2017 Alberta crop reporting series is available on the Internet at: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sdd4191

 
 
 
 
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This information published to the web on October 20, 2017.